‘Balanced vagueness’: has China’s Middle East engagement strategy reached its limits? – Technologist

“In my mind, you see a lot of self-interest because … China gains a lot more by taking the side of the Arab and Muslim world and the Global South,” Gering said. “This way, it serves the purpose of isolating the US globally and tarnishing its image and dividing the West from within.”

Similar views were raised earlier at a hearing by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission in April.

Jonathan Fulton, an associate professor at Zayed University, told the committee that the Hamas attack has had “significant repercussions” for China’s approach to the region and “resulted in a more blatantly realpolitik” approach.

“Its messaging on the war in Gaza is … more about China presenting itself as an alternative to the US as a global leader than it is about the war itself,” he said, according to a transcript of his testimony.

Fulton said that China – riding the success of the Iran-Saudi Arabia deal it brokered – has positioned itself as a conflict mediator as part of a larger strategy to present itself as a leading global actor.

“Generally, its response to events since the Hamas attack have made China look very transactional and self-interested in the region, rather than a responsible extra-regional power with substantial Middle East interests,” he said.

But Niu Xinchun, director of the Institute of Middle East Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, disagreed, saying China had adopted a consistent and “principled” approach to the conflict rather than taking a transactional approach.

The conflict, he said, had “deep historical roots”, and the Hamas attack in October had occurred “under a certain historical context”.

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Where China stands on the Israel-Gaza war

Where China stands on the Israel-Gaza war

China has called for an end to the attacks and expressed concern over the situation, with Bloomberg reporting that the Houthis have assured Beijing and Moscow that their ships would not be attacked. In return, however, the two countries were urged to provide “political support” to the Yemen-based group. China has not joined a US-led coalition to safeguard commercial traffic in the area.

Alessandro Arduino, an affiliate lecturer at the Lau China Institute at King’s College London, said China was cautiously navigating the Middle East security “quagmire”, and its go-to strategies – focusing primarily on trade and investment – were being tested.

“However, its cautious handling of the Gaza conflict and the Houthi crisis in the Red Sea reveals that regional countries must still balance their act between Beijing and Washington,” he said.

“China’s balanced vagueness is not necessarily to be considered a lack of resolve in engaging the region, but probably a lack of tools as the current situation relies heavily on the security toolbox.”

Among the goals of China’s strategic response to the Middle East crises is to undermine US hegemony in the region and to weaken its network of partnerships, said Gering, who is also a researcher at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies.

Samaan, from the NUS Middle East Institute, said China’s actions reflected a “correction” of influence in the Middle East.

Observers have for years felt that China’s presence in the region was growing and was on its way to defy or possibly replace the US, but the Israel-Gaza war and its regional implications spoke to the limits of Beijing’s engagements, he said.

He suggested that while Middle Eastern powers were likely not under the illusion China could resolve the conflict, some Gulf states may now feel “less confident” about using their relations with China as a bargaining chip to force the US to stay engaged in the region.

“In other words, the limits of Beijing’s influence are a wake-up call for the local players who were trying to hedge against the US,” he said.